Black Friday Marketing in 2026: What the Forecasts Mean for Your Plan

Adobe expects Americans to spend $12.9 billion online this Black Friday, 9.2% more than last year, and more than $15 billion on Cyber Monday. The five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday should bring in $47.5 billion, about 17% of the whole holiday season, according to Adobe’s 2026 holiday forecast. With that much demand packed into one week, the job of Black Friday marketing is to be ready when shoppers arrive. Thanksgiving falls on November 26 this year, which leaves little time to adjust. Here is how I read the forecast and what I would check before then.

What the 2026 Holiday Forecast Says

Adobe builds its forecast from Adobe Analytics data on US retail sites. For November 1 through December 31, it expects $275.1 billion in online spending. That would be 6.7% more than the $257.8 billion shoppers spent in the 2025 season.

Three details matter for planning:

• Cyber Monday stays the biggest day, but Black Friday is growing faster.
• Thanksgiving Day should reach $6.9 billion, up 8.5%.
• Cyber Week as a whole should grow 7.4%, faster than the season overall.

The growth sits in the days before Cyber Monday, so a plan built around a single Monday push starts too late.

Black Friday Marketing Starts Before Thanksgiving

Discounts no longer wait for Friday. Adobe expects deals of up to 14% off listed prices in early November, up to 21% just before Thanksgiving and up to 30% during Cyber Week. After that, it expects 10% to 15% through December. Shoppers have been seeing offers since October’s sales events, so some of your customers will buy before the holiday weekend.

I plan the offer calendar in three steps:

• Give email and SMS subscribers early access in the week before Thanksgiving, with a modest offer.
• Hold the deepest discount for the day your category peaks. Adobe expects the best deals on TVs, toys, apparel, appliances and furniture on Black Friday, and on electronics and computers on Cyber Monday.
• Keep a smaller offer running into December for people who missed the weekend.

Agree on the lowest margin you’ll accept with finance before the week starts. That way nobody deepens an offer on Saturday night to chase a revenue number.

Test the Sale on a Phone First

Adobe expects a record 63% of Thanksgiving Day online spending to come through mobile devices, and 57.4% across the full season. Buy now, pay later services should account for $21.3 billion of holiday spending, with 82% of it on mobile. On Cyber Monday alone, Adobe expects $1.09 billion in buy now, pay later purchases.

So test the sale the way most buyers will meet it. Open the promotional email on a phone, tap through to the product page and complete a purchase with each payment method you offer. Check that the discount shows in the cart without a code hunt and that installment options appear before checkout. Then check that the page stays fast under load. I covered the speed side in my post on Core Web Vitals, and the case for fewer calls to action is stronger still on a small screen.

Expect Shoppers Who Arrive From AI Tools

During the 2025 holiday season, Adobe measured a 693.4% jump in traffic to US retail sites from generative AI tools. It expects that traffic to rise another 130% this season. In Adobe’s survey of 5,000 consumers, 77% of those who had used AI for online shopping said they felt more confident in their purchase, and 69% said they were less likely to return it.

A shopper who arrives from an assistant has usually compared options already, so the page they land on has to confirm what they were told. That means price, stock, delivery date and return policy, all visible without scrolling far. Keep product feeds and structured data current through the sale, because assistants read both. My post on agentic commerce goes deeper on feeds and on what AI shopping tools look for.

Move Some Budget Toward Affiliates and Creators

Adobe also tracks which marketing channels drive holiday revenue. This year it expects affiliates and partners, a group that includes social influencers, to grow their share of revenue by 12%, and social media to grow its share by 17%. Paid search should grow by 4%. Within affiliate traffic, cashback and rewards partners lead with a 36% share, followed by influencers and creators at 22%.

Paid search still belongs in the plan, since it catches people who already know what they want. However, the gains are coming from partners, and partners need more lead time than an ad campaign. Send affiliates and creators your offer dates, codes and creative at least a week ahead, and confirm commission terms for the sale period in writing. If you’re still building the program, start with my guide to recruiting affiliates.

Protect Your Email Reputation During the Rush

Inboxes fill up in Cyber Week, and mailbox providers have tightened their rules. Gmail has been rejecting non-compliant bulk mail since November 2025, so a sudden jump in volume to an unengaged list can hurt you in the week it matters most. Send the early-access offer to engaged subscribers first. Suppress anyone who hasn’t opened or clicked in months, and check your spam complaint rate every day. The full requirements are in my post on email deliverability in 2026.

What to Measure After Cyber Monday

Revenue for the week is the easy number. I’d also pull three others in the first week of December:

• New customers versus returning ones, by channel.
• Margin after discounts, shipping and returns.
• How many holiday buyers purchase again within 60 to 90 days.

The third number takes time to come in, and it tells you whether the sale brought customers or one-time bargain hunters. A post-purchase sequence that starts with the order confirmation gives first-time buyers a reason to come back in January.

If You Sell Software or Services

Software and service companies run Cyber Week offers too, usually discounts on annual plans or upgrades. The same rules hold: announce early to your list, keep the offer simple and set an end date you’ll honor. The sales cycle is the difference. A buyer who needs approval can’t close in four days, so I’d extend a B2B offer through mid-December and measure it on pipeline created as well as deals closed.

Adobe’s numbers are forecasts, and the actual results will be out in early December. Whatever they show, the checks above take a few days, and there is still time to run them.